Dan Roemer your Frisco Real Estate agent We Sell Homes
Dan Roemer

Do you know how mortgage rates determined?


Where do mortgage rates come from?  Not the 10 year nor 30 year Treasury as many think

Why and how mortgage rates change in the marketplace is often misunderstood – even by the news media. They often report mortgage rates will go down when the Federal Reserve announces a rate cut when sometimes the opposite can happen.

 

How do Federal Reserve rate changes affect mortgages?

Fed rate changes don't directly affect mortgage rates. Instead, they affect the inflation expectations of investors.

 

The role of the Federal Reserve in our economy is to control inflation so we have long-term economic growth and prosperity. If the economy grows too fast, we get inflation. If the economy shrinks, we have recession.  The Fed's main tool in managing the economy is to change short-term interest rates. They can directly change the rate banks charge each other for loans and the rate the Fed charges banks. Banks eventually change the rates they charge customers for certain loan and savings products as it gets cheaper or more expensive for them to borrow money. Loans indexed to the Prime rate are usually the first to change.

 

The Fed lowers rates to speed up the economy. Lower rates encourage more business and consumer spending as loans become cheaper and saving becomes less profitable. The Fed raises rates to slow the economy. Higher rates discourage spending as borrowing becomes more expensive and saving money becomes more profitable.

If investors think Fed rate changes will make the economy grow fast enough to cause inflation, the mortgage rates they demand will go up. If they think the Fed's actions will reduce inflation, mortgage rates are likely to fall. There are times when mortgage rates will go the opposite direction of Fed rate changes based on the inflationary impact investors expect.

 

What do investors have to do with mortgages?

Did you know that individuals and businesses can invest in securities backed by people's mortgages? Institutions that make mortgages frequently sell them to investors. The mortgage interest homeowners pay provides income to buyers of mortgage-backed securities. That buying and selling of mortgages gives lenders a ready source of money for making mortgage loans. As a result, far more people can get mortgages and buy homes than would otherwise occur.

 

How do mortgage investors influence mortgage rates?

Investors require a return on their money in exchange for the risk they are taking. That required rate of return directly impacts mortgage rates. Simply put, if the rate offered on a mortgage-backed security is below the return investors require, they won't buy it at face value. To get face value, the institution selling the mortgage must raise their mortgage interest rates to a level that meets the required rate of return.

The rate is generally based on two kinds of risk – inflation expectations and risk the borrower won't repay on time. 

 

During this period of credit risk and increased property foreclosures, mortgage backed securities are deemed risky and therefore the selling institution has to pay a higher rate to attract investors.  This helps foster higher mortgage rates at the consumer level.

 

How inflation expectations of mortgage investors affect rates?

Inflation occurs when prices for goods and services rise over time. As prices rise, the purchasing power of a dollar falls. Investors want to ensure that inflation won't erase the value of the earnings on their investments. If they expect inflation to increase, they'll want a higher rate. If they expect inflation to decrease, they'll accept less. As mentioned before, Fed rate changes are a big factor in those expectations.


The Top 6 Mistakes of Foreclosed-Home Buying


By Luke Mullins, U.S. News

Nov 18th, 2008

Nothing illustrates the devastation of America's housing bust more vividly than the abandoned properties now blighting the nation's communities. In the third quarter alone, foreclosure filings were reported on more than 750,000 properties in the United States, a 71 percent increase from the same period last year, according to RealtyTrac. But for real estate investors, one person's tragedy can be another's good fortune. With so many foreclosures on the market, "this is a once-in-a-generation opportunity for many people," says Steve Dexter, a foreclosure expert and author of the forthcoming book Buy and Hold Forever-Building Real Estate Wealth Far Into the 21st Century.

Still, the purchase of foreclosed property—an often complex and involved process—presents would-be buyers with plenty of opportunities to make costly mistakes. In an effort to help consumers avoid such pitfalls, U.S. News spoke with a handful of experts to create a list of six common blunders that individuals make when attempting to buy foreclosed properties.

1. Flying solo. While enterprising do-it-yourselfers can certainly get away with going through the traditional home buying process without an agent, foreclosed real estate is another matter. Such complex transactions require the expertise of not just any real estate agent but one with a background in buying and selling foreclosed homes. "In today's uncertain times it's important to be working with someone who has been through market cycles before," says Patrick McGilvray, president of TheHomeBuyingCenter.com, which links homeowners and owners of foreclosure real estate with potential house buyers. So unless you are truly a real estate expert, do some research and find an agent with foreclosure experience in your market.

2. Being unfamiliar with the law. It's important to remember that real estate agents aren't lawyers, and foreclosure laws can change significantly from state to state. "A lot of people don't realize [that] foreclosures are heavily regulated and every state has its own set of laws," says Alexis McGee, the president of Foreclosures.com. "If you don't have the language proper in your contract, or if you have even the font size wrong, it's criminal and civil damages-don't count on every Realtor knowing this." As such, McGee advises against relying on a real estate agent for legal advice. Instead, consumers should review the foreclosure laws in their state and then get qualified legal advice from a local real estate attorney.

3. Thinking short term. Since many foreclosed homes may decline further in value in the coming months, it's important that buyers approach the transaction from a long-term perspective." If you are not looking at a piece of foreclosed property from a 10-year time horizon-as an investor or as an owner occupant-then you will likely suffer," McGilvray says. So if you are just trying to cash in on a quick flip, don't buy a foreclosure. Only investors with the resources and patience for a long-term real estate investment and homeowners who can afford a fully amortized fixed-rate mortgage should consider buying foreclosed property, McGilvray says.

4. Seeing only the sticker. While the price you negotiate for a foreclosed home may be significantly less than its value just a few years back, many such homes may require substantial repairs. McGilvray says that anyone buying a foreclosed property should make sure to set aside an additional 10 percent of its price tag for repairs. "Make sure you have 10 percent, especially if the home is a few years old," he says. "It is amazing how quickly houses can deteriorate." Prospective buyers should keep these additional repair costs in mind when they are negotiating the home's price.

5. Searching too broadly. With so much inventory coming onto the market these days, it's easy for buyers to become overwhelmed. To that end, Dexter recommends that anyone in the market for a foreclosure target a specific neighborhood and contact an agent with experience there. Make sure to specify the type of property you are looking for in order to avoid being inundated with listings. Tell the agent, "I want all these kinds of houses in this neighborhood that are bank listings [and] I want to know about them all as they come on the market," Dexter says. The agent will then be able to shoot you all the listings that meet your requirements as they become available. "If [the buyer is] patient enough and they get plugged in to the flow of new bank listings coming in, they can pick up some awfully good deals."

6. Taking no prisoners. While buyers can certainly get good deals on foreclosed homes, it's a mistake to assume that banks will accept any and all offers. (Unless, of course, the listing specifically says so.) Banks aren't set up to sell houses, so they typically outsource their foreclosed properties to real estate agents, McGee says. In such cases, agents can receive listings in bulk, perhaps 50 at a time. While these agents want to get the properties sold off quickly, they also want to get a good price for the seller so that the bank will give them additional business in the future. "Saving face is important for them," McGee says. "A lot of people just assume that because this property is bank-owned they will just take half off. Well, that's just not true." As such, insultingly low offers have the potential to tank the negotiations over foreclosed homes, McGee says. So make sure you present your wholesale offer case well both in writing and verbally with the listing agent.


Please Remember!


Real estate is like the weather.  It is localized in nature and ever changing. Despite what the media gives daily in their doom and gloom predictions and reports, the market in the Dallas Fort Worth metroplex is as robust as ever. It is true that it is a buyers market in most areas, but there are several areas that the seller still has the upper hand.  It is equally true that if you have a clean, well kept home for sale, AND you price it right, it will sell timely.  Our Collin County area averages around 70-80 days from list to close for good, clean properties that are priced competitively.

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